Thinking: Psychological Perspective on Reasoning, Judgement and Decision Making
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Decisions made by experts and professionals also display these departures from expected judgment. The good news is that these flaws in judgment and decision making are generally not arbitrary. In his book chapter, " Decision behaviour - Improving expert judgement ", Dr.
Publications | Daniel Kahneman
Geir Kirkebooen suggests, " If the biases and their causes can be identified, it should be possible to correct them. Our approaches used for simplification lead to predictable and systematic biases. Kirkebooen summarizes a number of findings that may provide help in improving our judgment when making decisions. However, one common belief that he discredits is that experience improves decision quality, citing evidence that shows the observed accuracy of expert judgments is not related to experience.
He also identifies some improvement strategies that the evidence or lack of evidence suggests are not effective.
Ethical Leadership and the Psychology of Decision Making
In particular:. Kirkebooen identifies cognitive and technological strategies as two areas where evidence has shown that judgment in decision making can be improved. Here are some methods that his research has identified as being effective:. Kirkebooen, Geir Palgrave Macmillan. ISBN Chapter 9. Thompson, Dick.
High Performing Systems, Inc. Follow Us. Our everyday reasoning abilities have evolved to cope efficiently with a complex and dynamic environment. Where do the norms of rationality come from, if they are not an idealization of the way humans actually reason in their ordinary lives? Kahneman never grapples philosophically with the nature of rationality. He does, however, supply a fascinating account of what might be taken to be its goal: happiness. What does it mean to be happy? When Kahneman first took up this question, in the mid s, most happiness research relied on asking people how satisfied they were with their life on the whole.
But such retrospective assessments depend on memory, which is notoriously unreliable. And he found that these two measures of happiness diverge in surprising ways. In particular, the remembering self does not care about duration — how long a pleasant or unpleasant experience lasts. Rather, it retrospectively rates an experience by the peak level of pain or pleasure in the course of the experience, and by the way the experience ends. Two groups of patients were to undergo painful colonoscopies. The patients in Group A got the normal procedure. So did the patients in Group B, except — without their being told — a few extra minutes of mild discomfort were added after the end of the examination.
Which group suffered more? Well, Group B endured all the pain that Group A did, and then some. In an earlier research paper though not in this book, Kahneman suggested that the extra discomfort Group B was subjected to in the experiment might be ethically justified if it increased their willingness to come back for a follow-up! As with colonoscopies, so too with life.
It is the remembering self that calls the shots, not the experiencing self. There may be no experiencing self at all. The self seems simply to disappear. Then who exactly is enjoying the film? And why should such egoless pleasures enter into the decision calculus of the remembering self? Clearly, much remains to be done in hedonic psychology. Policy makers interested in lowering the misery index of society will find much to ponder here. Appraising the book by the peak-end rule, I overconfidently urge everyone to buy and read it.
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In all other cases, think. A review on Nov. Simon, won the award in Simon, a polymath and interdisciplinarian, was also an economist, a political scientist and a sociologist. Tell us what you think. Please upgrade your browser. See next articles. Bazerman, D. Messick, A. Wade-Benzoni, Eds. Back to Bentham? Explorations of experienced utility. Quarterly Journal of Economics , , Thaler, R. The effect of myopia and loss aversion on risk taking: An experimental test. Kahn, B. Patterns of hedonic consumption over time.
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Judgment & Reasoning
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